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To the Editor:
I agree with Dr. Haley,1 that the fundamental question is whether the incidence in the young Gulf War veteran population has exceeded the expected incidence for that age group, based on age-specific incidence in the general population. Comparison2 to age-matched data from a contemporaneous US population with excellent case findings3 shows that was not the case.
How did Dr. Haley find otherwise? New, elaborate, and unvalidated methodology was used for the first time in this article to calculate the number of cases to be expected in the deployed 1990 Gulf War cohort.1 In my opinion, an unvalidated method cannot be relied upon to draw conclusions, just as one would not allow an unvalidated cholesterol assay to be used to determine cholesterol levels in patients, and then base treatment decisions on the results.
In my opinion, this method introduced two types of systematic errors: (a) errors that resulted in a “low-ball” estimate of the expected …
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